Arthur De Vany. "Hollywood Economics: How extreme uncertainty shapes the film industry"

Provoking book that helps One building the gut level instincts that eventually will be used in making a decision about which movie to produce.

Just how risky is the Movie industry?
Is screenwriter William Goldman's claim that "nobody knows anything" really true?
Can a star and a big opening change a movie's risks and return?
Do studio executives really earn their huge paychecks?
How can you predict the success or failure of a film?
These and many other questions are answered in Hollywood Economics. The book uses powerful analytical models to uncover the wild uncertainty that shapes the industry. The centerpiece of the analysis is the unpredictable and often chaotic dynamic behavior of motion picture audiences.
This unique and important book will be of interest to students and researchers involved in the economics of movies, industrial economics and business studies. The book will also be a real eye-opener for film writers, movie executives, finance and risk management professionals as well as more general movie fans.