Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run 960-2030 AD

Description

In this new edition of an already remarkable book published by the Development Centre in 1998,Angus Maddison provides a detailed analysis of the development of the Chinese economy over the past millennium and the prospects for the next quarter century. He demonstrates that Chinese per capita income was higher than that of Europe from the tenth to the early fifteenth century and it was the world’s biggest economy for several centuries thereafter, before falling into decline. Its extraordinary progress in the reform period since 1978 has been a resurrection, not a miracle and it is likely to resume its normal position as the world’s number one economy by 2015. He applies standard OECD measurement techniques to estimate the pace of Chinese progress and finds somewhat slower growth,nearly 8 per cent a year rather than the 9.6 per cent of Chinese Bureau of Statistics. Instead of using the exchange rate to measure the level of Chinese performance, which greatly understates China’s role in the world economy, Maddison uses purchasing power parity to convert yuan into US dollars and finds that China accounted for 5 per cent of world GDP in 1978, 15 per cent in 2003 and that this is likely to rise to 23 per cent in 2030.

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