From Red to Gray: The "Third Transition" of Aging Populations in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union

Conventional wisdom holds that aging populations are unfavorable for economic growth because of their potential impacts on labor supply, productivity, and savings. When this is coupled with the increased spending pressures because of pension requirements and health care, aging societies are likely to face serious fiscal problems.

After the historical political transitions in the early 1990s, and significant economic transitions over the 1990s until now, the countries of
Central, Southeastern, and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union are experiencing a demographic transition—one that will greatly impact their polities, economies, and societies over the next two decades and beyond. This “third transition” is marked by rapid aging and shrinking populations in 20 countries of the region and significantly “graying” populations in all the transition countries and Turkey. Over the next two decades, the share and number of elderly will continue to rise; by 2025, one person in every five in most of the region’s countries will be over the age of 65.