Pattern Recognition and Trading Decisions

Description

The instant we began classifying seemingly random events into recurring configurations we discovered patterns; that day our simian ancestors gained an incontestable advantage over other species. Later, the ability to detect patterns was so vital to our survival that it became an innate evolutionary skill. Using these skills in the markets can make you loose your shirt. And even with proper training-one of the objectives of Dr. Satchwell's book-recognizing valid patterns is still a matter of understanding probabilities.

There are a few classic studies (Working's and Slutzky's in the 1930s, and Robert's in 1959) that play havoc with our supposed chart-pattern recognition abilities. Essentially, these statisticians plotted randomly generated data on graph paper. They then showed the charts to technical analysts who quickly started seeing rounded bottoms, symmetrical triangles, head-and-shoulder tops, and similar designs.

Dr. Satchwell's book helps us distinguish between a possible chart pattern and a probable configuration; between a fake and a potential trade.

But the book does much more than that because it provides tools that will help us define the phases of the market. On a given day the market will behave like a manic-depressive and offer you dollars for fifty cents; another day, in an orgy of euphoria, the opposite will be true. Then, it will turn around and behave randomly, with the senseless Brownian motion exquisitely described by Bachelier, Fama, Samuelson, et al. A bit later, the market will show persistence and develop unimaginably long trends. And then, for no reason whatsoever, it will trace a Mandelbrot fractal and take us to the very onset of chaos. And just when you thought that you had it licked, it will start to behave like a mean-reversion machine-with a shifty mean, of course.

Enjoy this great book! Brought to you by SMIRK



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